Twitter and Facebook Early Indicator Gillard will win Election


At the time of writing PM Julie Gillard has 54,566 friends on Social networking site, Facebook, and Tony Abbot a mere 10,424 friends.

Over on social microblogging site Twitter, Julia is well in the lead with 34,397 Twitter Julia Gillard followers while Tony Abbott closes the gap a little better with 16,003 followers.

Tony Abbott Facebook Page shows he has 10,424 friends

Tony Abbott Facebook Page shows he has 10,424 friends

Julia Gillard's Facebook Page

Julia Gillard's Facebook Page shows she has 54,566 friends

But how much can we rely on Social media to help us predict the results of the next election? Does the very public nature of one’s decision to follow or befriend a party leader skew the results?

Interestingly, in the last US Election, the writing was very much on the wall with Barack Obama not only blitzing the numbers game (he currently has over 4,500,000 followers onTwitter) but raising the most funds ever recorded via social media for an election campaign.

However SMH reported last week that in a two party preferred poll by Herald/Neilson the Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

This is in conflict with the popularity contest that is Facebook and Twitter. It has to be said, that Julia is the current PM and so should receive a social ‘handicap’ based on that alone.  If the swing reported by the Herald/Neilson is to be believed then we should see a change in the pace with which these two leaders gather followers and friends.

Interesting social and political times to come in the next three weeks indeed.

by Libby Malcolm

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About Libby Malcolm

Libby Malcolm is an internet professional based in Sydney.
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2 Responses to Twitter and Facebook Early Indicator Gillard will win Election

  1. Nikki Walters says:

    Are the numbers on social media more indicative of the demographic attracted to each party. I may be misinformed but I will push on. Traditionally the labour party has attracted a younger voter. Many of these will be university students most very social networking oriented types. On the other side I believe the Liberal party attracts an older voter. Many of these will not be linked into social networking sites and if they are use it in a very limited way. If we are to believe the ‘cabinet leaks’ Julia Gillard is herself aware of this demographic slant. Anecdotally as voters move towards their child raising years a number of voters (not sure of %’s) also switch from labour to liberal as their views on life change with the dramatic change of family life. As to how much the demographic factor comes to bear on the numbers each leader has tallied I can’t even begin to guess. What is obvious is how useful this tool can be to people in the public eye and I am sure at this level they are tightly managed by minders and spin doctors (ooh did that cynicism give away my age group). I too think Julia will win but didn’t base that thought on numbers of facebook and twitter followers. I suspect the win will not reflect the margin of difference of facebookers and twitterers. Happy blogging.

  2. Pingback: How I Got My Blog Idea on’s Home Page | Libby Malcolm's Blog

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